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FUTURE
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1991-08-29
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ALMANAC 1992, by Jeff Napier & Another Company
PREDICTIONS
_____________________________________________________________
Here are some predictions of future technology, based on
current research or prototypes under development:
_____________________________________________________________
Computers will be installed into houses that will constantly
listen to commands such as "dim the lights" and will
automatically fill the tub with warm water when you want it.
They will unlock the front door of your house for you if you
simply say "Open" but will not let the mailman in no matter
what he says.
_____________________________________________________________
Your VCR will learn what shows you watch regularly and if you
forget to watch one of your favorites, it will automatically
record it.
_____________________________________________________________
All household appliances will be computerized, Mr. Coffee
machines already are, they have an Intel 8088 chip, the same
computer CPU used by CP/M computers and Tandy 100 series
laptops. There's no way the toaster of the future could burn
the toast.
_____________________________________________________________
Complete baby-sensing equipment that will know from a change
in local humidity that the baby needs changing, can diagnose
the sound structure of the baby's crying and tell you
specifically what's wrong will be common within the next 10
years.
_____________________________________________________________
Education will be revolutionized. Children will study
independently at their computerized desks and challenge tests
because showing off what you have learned is fun. Each child
in a classroom will be studying something different than the
others. The teacher will be there strictly for social,
emotional, physical education and support.
I think we can safely predict a major revolution in
education, especially for young children. People are
starting to get upset about how kids are being handled, and
soon, when we see the results with this present generation of
children, we're going to get mad enough to make drastic
changes.
_____________________________________________________________
Radio-accessible Databases will replace encyclopedia.
_____________________________________________________________
In the very near future, all new televisions will
show pictures in 3-D and all television stations will
broadcast the new 3-D signals. It will come about just as
color television developed, those who have the new
televisions will be able to use the 3-D signals broadcast by
the stations, but those with plain old color televisions will
only see the standard picture. The equipment, which requires
no special viewing glasses or special high technology, has
already been invented. All that remains to be done is
perfection and marketing.
_____________________________________________________________
The family television, VCR, stereo equipment, computer,
telephone and answering machine will all be considered one
item. The 'thing' will of course have a higher definition
color picture than current TV sets. It will have a flat
screen, not a picture tube, but something that uses
lower-power energy, emitting virtually no radiation and is
therefore safer, probably high-contrast, color
liquid-crystal. These things will be available as portables
too. While the family model may appear in every room, just
like TV, there is likely to be a huge version in the living
room, but the same capabilities will also be available in a
wristwatch sized model.
_____________________________________________________________
Later on, after speech recognition is common, and all the old
timers who like to type retire, keyboards will be eliminated.
_____________________________________________________________
Some futurists predict that as the march of technology
continues, people will have less and less contact with
others, even friends and family. More and more time will be
spend interfacing ourselves with electronic media devices.
Conversations between friends will continue, but most often
they will be by picture phone, modem or other electronic
means, and less often in person.
_____________________________________________________________
Presently, information processing accounts for 55% of the
American workforce. It is predicted that it will be 80%
eight years from now - by the year 2000. Farming will still
employ only 2% of the total workforce.
_____________________________________________________________
When you visit a home in the not too distant future, you
might notice that the carpets are particularly clean,
especially in corners and under the sofa. Then you will see a
large bug scurrying across the living room floor. The bug,
spanning no more than 5" across its six metal legs, will
quietly pick up a fuzzbunny and put it in a hopper on the
bug's back. Then the bug will crawl over to a low trash
container and empty itself there. Of course you won't be
amazed, because in the near future, you will have seen
commercials for the new robot vacuum cleaners on TV.
They can be built now. The mechanical part is practacal
with today's technology.. Legs will be needed because small
wheels cannot negotiate thick carpeting, stairs, or even
slick linoleum. Currently the legs could use electric motors
and cables and gears, but future robots might use solenoids
or electric muscles actually made from some sort of fibers.
The thinking part is easy. Currently, we may have a PC
running the thinks by radio control, but soon the bugs can
carry their entire intelligence within themselves. Some of
the most recent designs in artificial life call for
independent brains for each function. One circuit would
control an evasion reflex. This would cause the bug to change
course when headed for a collision. Another circuit would
cause the bug to wander in a pattern across your floor. Yet
another would try to recognize dirt, and another circuit
would know how to pick up the dirt. For additional
sophistication, the bug could come out only in the
dark. As soon as the lights are switched on, the thing would
run and hide in a closet. The occupants of a house would
never have to see their vacuum robot at work.
The little vacuum robots - there could be one for each
room - would call a big pick-up robot when they spot an empty
soda can. Rumpled up newspapers might be a problem. They
would need some way to know whether you are done reading
them.
_____________________________________________________________
There has been a serious suggestion to hold the 2008 olympics
in outer space. The games would occur in a ring-shaped space
station with a circumference of 2 km. At the rim of the
spinning station, gravity would be earth-normal, so the
competitors would be performing in a customary environment.
At the hub of the station, there would be almost no gravity,
leading to a whole new series of games.
Athletes, who you would think would be quite conservative
about the idea of new games, rather liked the idea when
interviewed about it.
Shooting 10,000 spectators into low orbit would cost very
little more than trans-oceanic cruise ship fare. Even though
the cost of building the station would be high, it is not
much higher than building current land-based "olympic cities"
and the station could be used over and over again.
Furthermore, all nations would be likely to participate
equally in its costs and advantages.
Even the president of the US Olympic Committee finds the
idea acceptable.
_____________________________________________________________
Picture this: In a courtroom of the future, a witness has to
recall an event that took place many months ago. Before
testimony begins, the bailiff uncorks a bottle and asks the
witness to smell it. Only then is the witness allowed to
speak. The reason for this bizarre scenario is that
scientists have discovered memory is considerably improved
when an odor similar to one which occurred at the time will
enhance memories of that event.
_____________________________________________________________
In traffic court of the future, the judge will wave a
bar-code reading pen over your drivers' license. Then he will
wave the pen over a chart which will contain several bar
codes. At least two of them will have very specific meanings:
Innocent and guilty. This information will go in your
record. Next case.
_____________________________________________________________
Adjustment of electrical and mechanical contraptions of the
future might be done like mixing paint. Many devices will be
composed of nanotechnological components, things which are
very small. Already, microscopic motors, gears, levers,
cutters, nozzles and other devices have been made in
laboratories. A car engine might consist of a tank of these
devices. Each micro-engine will digest a raw material,
probably not gasoline, but perhaps liquified compost, and
produce a magnetic field. The tank full of engines will have
a hose at the bottom that circulates these engines through
motors at the wheels (four-wheel drive, of course), driven by
their magnetism. If your car acts up, because your
particular brand of compost is too tomato-rich, for instance,
just pour a few ounces of modified engines into the tank. If
you want more power, at the cost of more compost, just pour
more engines in the tank.
If your dog gets bad breath, mix some bad-breath bacteria
eating nanomachines into its food. If you can't afford to
take the time to make a milkshake, get a tube of milkshake
synthesizing nanomachines, pour in some synthetic milk (made
from rice) and some other stuff, and as long as you add
materials, you'll always have a full hopper of milkshake in
your fridge. Want synthetic beef? No problem. Just pour in a
packet of materials and a tube of the right engines. Add the
right amount of water, and presto. Wish your computer had
more memory? No problem. Pour in another tube of memory
machines. How about a sewing machine that makes thread as it
goes?
Sensing devices will have much greater accuracy. A modern
thermometer has a single pool of mercury which grows when
heated and rises within a small-diameter glass tube. But in
the future, the pool of mercury might be replaced with a pool
of nanomachines. The pool might be a mixture, some of which
suddenly expand when at a certain temperature, and others
which will expand at other temperatures. In total, there will
be millions of machines in the little pool. They will
indicate the temperature by vote. Each nanomachine will vote
by being expanded or not. You will see the total size of the
pool. If one or two nanomachines is inaccurate, their effect
will be very small, but the overall effect will be of
considerable accuracy and reliability.
The same technology of democracy may be the way computer
memory will work. In current computers, each item of thought,
or byte, is stored in a specific memory cell. In future
machines, the nanomachines, which may number in the billions,
may handle memory essentially randomly. When a thought is
introduced, some of the nano-memory machines will take it on
as their own. When asked later for their thoughts, most of
these memory machines will respond with the same thought.
Some will not, or will respond late, or with other thoughts.
The computer will act on the majority's thought, but may be
able to accept the deviations and process these too,
resulting in originality, creativity and truly thinking
machines.
Using this democratic technology, computers and their
peripherals may be capable of quite amazing feats. In an
airplane, nanomachines may be mixed into the material that
makes up the wings, frame, even engine parts. These will be
in communication with the central control computer of the
airplane, which in addition to handling navigation,
autopilot, collision avoidance, food processing, air
conditioning, and in-flight entertainment chores, will be
able to warn the pilots if they are performing a maneuver
which is stressing, or threatening the structural integrity
of any of the plane's parts.
Imagine toothpaste that seeks out and eats tooth-decay
bacteria. It will floss for you, on a microscopic scale so
that you'll never feel it at work. In fact, you won't even
know it exists. It will be mixed into your milkshake.
_____________________________________________________________
Ronald Reagan summed up the future well when he stated that
soon Americans will be "computing to work instead of
commuting to work."
This seems to be a definite trend for our future. With
the rise of fax machines, modems, more sophisticated
telephone systems, better and better graphics handling by
computers and more and more memory, why go to a special place
to work? You can work anywhere there's a phone line.
And, with more and more strain on the overworked air
transportation industry, with air fare costing more, and with
longer waits at airports, why should your boss pay for your
time to personally attend conferences when he can have you
put your thoughts on a disk and mail it to the 'conference'
or put it on the wires and modem it in?
This won't happen at some unspecified time in the
future. It is happening now, as is evidenced by the
tremendous decline in air travel. Rest assured that business
is still being conducted.
The only reason that personally showing up a conferences
hasn't been discontinued entirely already is tradition. We
still feel most comfortable meeting with associates in
person, because that is what we are used to.
Many bosses allow their managers, programmers and
inventors to gather in the hallways and around the coffee
machines because this leads to free-for-all discussions and
creative thinking that can benefit each worker's own output
and benefit the company. But in the future much of this can
be done by electronic conversations such as on electronic
bulletin board round table discussions and conference
telephone calls.
In one revolutionary step in this direction, many
executive-class job candidates mail their resumes on
videotape, rather than fly to another city for a job
interview.
Changing your job in the present often means buying a
new house in a different city, enrolling the kids in a new
school, getting a new doctor, dentist, bank, and all kinds of
work. But in the near future, changing jobs may be a matter
of dialing a different phone number in the morning.
The catchphrase of the near-future may be 'disk-based
conferencing.' At ANOTHER COMPANY, we are ready! This ALMANAC
1992 is being presented by a tool of disk-based conferencing
introduced in 1991 called WRITER'S DREAM. See the WRITER'S
DREAM chapter for more info.
_____________________________________________________________
Another improvement in our lives that will slide in without
any real fanfare is country-wide, possibly even world-wide
hook up of public libraries. Already, many county-wide
library systems have computerized card catalogs, where you
can order any book at any branch while you are standing in
another branch. Going a step further and interconnecting the
county systems in each state together will be easy. Then the
system may as well go national. Perhaps soon you will be able
to order any book in the world, and have it delivered to your
local library within a week.
But, let's not assume that it will be a paper-based
book. Perhaps all such matter will merely be modemed to your
home computer, and not in a week, either, but in 10 seconds.
With rather minor improvements (relative to the advances made
in the last 20 years), all information material, whether it
be text, extensive charts, color pictures and video, stereo
sounds and music, possibly even smells, will be able to be
sent to your PC, and then you can process them anyway you
want. If you are interested in Africa, you can look-up,
blend, discard, edit, print, view, hear and generally study
any aspect as if you were there. You can even add your own
artwork, cartoons, comments, and research to the pile and
send it back.
And since it appears that most of the material now in
print will end up in electronic format, the original language
it was written in will matter little. Software to translate
on line will be automatic. Of course, other studies in
futurology indicate that English will eventually become the
standard language. (Personally, I'm hoping the standard
language will be Pascal.)
_____________________________________________________________
The biggest improvement in computers in the near future is
likely to be large-scale parallel processing. Most
present-day computers process every thought through a single
chip, called the CPU or Central Processing Unit. Every byte
of information waits in line to be handled by the CPU.
Computers seem fast, but they're not - compared to the human
brain.
In the brain, thoughts, bits of information, are processed
in thousands, in fact millions, of locations simultaneously.
Furthermore, the logic is not digital, it is sort of
random-digital. It is the imperfections of information
handling in the brain that give rise to creativity. When
man-made computers can think fast, holding not megabytes but
millions of megabytes of information, and do it purposely
imperfectly, life as we know it is going to get real
interesting!
____________________________________________________________
chapter end.
ALMANAC 1992 is freeware. Please feel free to copy and
distribute as long as all files remain intact & unchanged.